Assessment of fluctuations in the Caspian Sea level

© 2021. N.I. Ivkina (1), A.V. Galayeva (1).

(1) Regional state enterprise “Kazhydromet”, Almaty, Kazakhstan.
E-mail: n_ivkina@mail.ru (Natalia Ivanovna Ivkina); nastlin@list.ru (Anastasia Vladimirovna Galaeva).

Assessment of fluctuations in the Caspian Sea level under the influence of climate change for the future until 2050

Abstract

The article considers the possible fluctuation in the Caspian Sea level for the future until 2050, taking into account climate changes. For this purpose, possible changes in the river inflow to the sea and meteorological parameters (precipitation, air temperature and evaporation from the water surface) were predicted. Changes in the meteorological parameters were estimated according to 2 climate scenarios RCP4. 5 and RCP8.5.

Calculations show that the inflow of water into the Caspian Sea would remain unchanged until 2050, while the outflow would increase significantly, potentially leading to a further decline in the Caspian Sea level and a reduction in its area. This steady downward trend will become in the second third of the 21st century.

A visual graph of the projected Caspian Sea level, taking into account two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), as well as the actual level change (until 2020).

By 2030, the Caspian Sea level might decline to -29.4…-29.6 meters. According to the RCP4.5 scenario, the sea water level would reach -32 meters by 2050, and according to the more pessimistic RCP8.5 scenario, the level would decline below -33 meters. It should be noted that the predicted Caspian Sea level values are subject to change depending on additional hydrometeorological data obtained.
Download the full paper.

For citation:
Ivkina N.I., Galayeva A.V. Assessment of fluctuations in the Caspian Sea level under the influence of climate change for the future until 2050 // Hydrometeorology and Ecology. no. 1 (100), 2021, pp. 100-107. doi:10.54668/2789-6323-2021-100-1-70-77.

In the photo: “The remains of the old pier, where our vessel was once moored”. The strait leading to the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay, the Caspian Sea, Turkmenistan, January 18, 2026. Photo and commentary by A.A. Shcherbina.